Auteur/autrice : Jean-Denis Mathias

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change anticipates increasing extreme rain events in the 21st century, leading to more frequent floods and more phosphorus transported into lakes, enhancing the risk of their eutrophication. This paper reports research assessing this risk on Lake Bourget in France, by coupling a statistical estimation of annual phosphorus transportation from annual…

Maintaining safe operating spaces for exploited natural systems in the face of uncertainty is a key sustainability challenge. This challenge can be viewed as a problem in which human society must navigate in a limited space of acceptable futures in which humans enjoy sufficient well-being and avoid crossing planetary boundaries. A critical obstacle is the…

Using the bounded-confidence model, with fixed uncertainties and extremists, we investigate how resilient the moderate mean opinion of a population is to the arrival in it of a new group of agents, when the energy of the opinion of this group (extremeness group size) is varied. We say moderate mean opinion is resilient when, even…

The planetary boundary framework constitutes an opportunity for decision makers to define climate policy through the lens of adaptive governance. Here, we use the DICE model to analyze the set of adaptive climate policies that comply with the two planetary boundaries related to climate change: (1) staying below a CO2 concentration of 550 ppm until 2100…

Information and collaboration patterns embedded in social networks play key roles in multilevel and polycentric modes of governance. However, modeling the dynamics of such social networks in multilevel settings has been seldom addressed in the literature. Here we use an adaptive social network model to elaborate the interplay between a central and a local government…